Economic cycles forecasting based on electric power consumption

Abstract

The aim of this project is to investigate the behavour of a major European and global economy, that of the U.K. The norm used to do that was the I.E.C. The data collected was used to fit a sigmoid curve with variables the cumulative I.E.C. vs. time in years. Subsequently, the percentage difference between the various data points and the ideal sigmoid was calculated for each year, which was used to create a Kondratiev Wave (K-wave or Long wave) curve, the parameters of which, including each period, were evaluated. Matlab was used as a tool to form both curves. The results were then compared to a number of brake points of the U.K.’s economy and it was verified that those two did not contradict. Finally an attempt of a short term prediction was held and a number of propositions of future work on this project were given.